LI AUTO-W(HK:02015) Guotou Securities·2025-05-05 15:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 135.84, which corresponds to a PE ratio of 26x for 2025 [7]. Core Views - The company reported April delivery of 34,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% but a month-on-month decrease of 7%. The decline is attributed to the transition between old and new models, with the new MEGA Ultra version expected to boost sales [1][2]. - The upcoming launch of the L series smart refresh is anticipated to drive sales upward, with significant upgrades in technology and features [3]. - The company is positioned to enter a new product cycle with its pure electric series, supported by a solid order performance and an expanding charging infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - April sales showed a year-on-year increase of 32%, but a month-on-month decrease of 7%, influenced by the transition of models and inventory clearance [1][2]. - The MEGA Ultra refresh and Home version are expected to enhance product appeal and drive sales post-launch [2]. Product Development - The L series smart refresh is set to launch in May, featuring significant technological upgrades that are likely to boost sales [3]. - The next-generation intelligent driving architecture, VLA model, is expected to enhance user experience and product competitiveness [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 10.3 billion, CNY 16 billion, and CNY 17.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.8, 12.1, and 10.9 [4][11]. - Revenue projections indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 167.3 billion in 2025, increasing to CNY 281.9 billion by 2027 [11][13].