神农集团（605296）：2024年报暨2025一季报点评：降本加速，成长确定性强化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with 2024 revenue reaching 5.584 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.51%, and a return to profitability with a net profit of 687 million yuan [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 also showed robust performance, with revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, up 35.97% year-on-year, and a net profit of 229 million yuan [1]. - The company's growth is driven by capacity expansion and cost optimization, with a focus on increasing the number of breeding sows and reducing breeding costs [2]. - The company has a solid financial structure, with a low debt ratio of 27.81% as of the end of Q1 2025, which supports its long-term expansion plans [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.584 billion yuan, with a net profit of 687 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses in previous years [1]. - For 2025, the revenue forecast is set at 8.042 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 569 million yuan [4]. Capacity and Cost Management - As of March 2025, the company has a breeding sow inventory of 128,000, an increase from 121,000 at the end of 2024, with ongoing capacity expansion expected to be completed by mid-2025 [2]. - The cost of breeding has been optimized, with the total cost per kilogram dropping to approximately 12.4 yuan in Q1 2025 [2]. Financial Health - The company raised 290 million yuan through a private placement to accelerate capacity construction, enhancing its financial strength [3]. - The asset-liability ratio has decreased by 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial stability [3]. Profit Forecasts - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised to 569 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 111.8% from previous estimates, with further increases projected for 2026 and 2027 [3].