CNCEC(601117) 华泰证券·2025-05-05 15:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.03 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in profitability, with a revenue of 186.6 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 4.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.7 billion RMB, up 4.82% year-on-year [1]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 44.7 billion RMB, down 1.15% year-on-year, but the net profit for the same period increased by 18.8% year-on-year [1]. - New orders signed in 2024 increased by 12.3% year-on-year, with overseas projects contributing significantly to this growth [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved revenue of 519 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.12%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 447 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 10.5%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins at 12.8% and 9.3%, respectively [2][3]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 3.1% in 2024, up 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, and further increased to 3.2% in Q1 2025 [3]. Cash Flow Management - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 8.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 0.4 billion RMB year-on-year, primarily due to increased cash outflows related to guarantees and advances [4]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow turned negative at -15.1 billion RMB, with a cash collection to payment ratio of 90%/113% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 6.1 billion RMB, 6.5 billion RMB, and 6.8 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 4% to 5% [5]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9x for 2025, leading to a target price adjustment to 9.03 RMB [5].