海航控股：2024年报及2025一季报点评25Q1盈利2.7亿元，看好业绩持续改善-20250505

Investment Rating - The investment rating for HNA Holding is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 65.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.92 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 0.31 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The company is expected to see a steady improvement in performance, with projected net profits of 1.57 billion yuan, 2.81 billion yuan, and 4.83 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 0.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60% [1] - The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 17.6 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [1] Operational Metrics - The daily aircraft utilization rate for 2024 increased by 1 hour to 9.3 hours, while the passenger load factor rose by 0.8 percentage points to approximately 83.5% [2] - The fleet size at the end of 2024 was 348 aircraft, with a net increase of 14 aircraft throughout the year [2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The unit revenue per available seat kilometer (ASK) for 2024 was 0.440 yuan, down 6% year-on-year, while the unit revenue per revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) was 0.527 yuan, down 8% [3] - The unit operating cost per ASK for 2024 was 0.407 yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in fuel prices [3] Expense Overview - The financial expenses for 2024 were 5.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, mainly due to lower interest expenses and reduced foreign exchange losses [4] - The selling expense ratio for 2024 was 3.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to experience a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to high profit elasticity in the medium to long term [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.04 yuan, increasing to 0.11 yuan by 2027 [7]