WLY(SZ:000858) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-05 15:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.940 billion yuan, growing by 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, an increase of 5.80% year-on-year. The performance in 2024 met expectations, while Q1 2025 slightly exceeded expectations [10] - The company is focusing on three key reform strategies: controlling volume and maintaining prices, establishing sales companies, and building platform companies. This approach aims to streamline the relationship between volume and price, maintain distributor profits, reduce inventory, and enhance the C-end network system focused on direct sales and group purchases [10] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 5.13%, 5.43%, and 5.21% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.54%, 5.39%, and 5.43% respectively. The estimated EPS for these years are 8.58, 9.04, and 9.53 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.00X, 14.24X, and 13.50X, indicating a favorable valuation [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue from other liquor products was 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 60.81% [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 89.175 billion yuan, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.09% and 5.44% respectively [10] - The gross margin for 2024 was 77.05%, with a net margin of 37.22%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 77.74% and the net margin was 41.60% [5] Sales and Distribution - The company’s distribution revenue in 2024 was 48.738 billion yuan, a 5.99% increase year-on-year, while direct sales revenue was 34.389 billion yuan, up 12.89% [3] - The number of distributors increased by 82 for Wuliangye and 245 for Wuliangye Fragrance in 2024, with a total of 1.6 million new core terminals added [3] - The company has integrated its marketing regions into three major areas: North, South, and East, enhancing its market responsiveness [4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.940 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.69% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a significant increase of 2,970.31% to 15.849 billion yuan [5] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 4.826 billion yuan to 11.690 billion yuan in 2024, with a further increase of 5.119 billion yuan to 10.166 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with a focus on enhancing its direct sales and group purchase capabilities, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth in line with macroeconomic indicators [10]