LZLJ(SZ:000568) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-05 15:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with notable dividend returns [11] - The growth is driven by the "Tequ 60" product, with an optimized channel structure [1][2] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and maintaining strategic pricing [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [11] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.352 billion yuan, growing 1.78% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% [11] - The gross and net profit margins for 2024 were 87.54% and 43.27%, respectively, with slight declines observed in Q1 2025 [3] Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in 2024 was 27.585 billion yuan, up 2.77% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 3.467 billion yuan, increasing by 7.15% [1] - The traditional channel revenue was 29.573 billion yuan, growing 3.20%, while emerging channels generated 1.479 billion yuan, up 4.14% [2] - The company saw a decrease in the number of domestic and international distributors, but the overall scale per distributor increased by 4.81% to 16.5582 million yuan [2] Dividend Policy - The company has a three-year dividend plan, committing to cash dividends of at least 65%, 70%, and 75% of net profit for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a minimum of 8.5 billion yuan each year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 1.00%, 6.77%, and 7.04% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 0.98%, 6.70%, and 7.11% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 9.24, 9.86, and 10.56 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.39, 12.55, and 11.71 [5]