高盛：China Matters-耐心与韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the Chinese economy, forecasting real GDP growth at 4.0% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, down from previous estimates of 4.5% and 4.0% respectively [2][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for China has shifted from optimism in Q1 to pessimism due to US tariff increases, with recent manufacturing PMI declines indicating potential economic weakness [2][3]. - The Chinese government is adopting a "reactive" approach to economic management, focusing on conservative and selective policy stimulus rather than aggressive fiscal spending [2][17]. - The report highlights four key implications of tariff-related issues for the Chinese economy, including the need for significant policy easing only in response to notable macroeconomic deterioration, the deflationary impact of US tariffs, challenges in strengthening trade ties with other countries, and the necessity for measures to bolster domestic demand and consumption [2][32][33]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The narrative of the Chinese macro economy has changed significantly, with Q1 benefiting from AI-induced optimism and strong exports, but recent tariff increases have led to a decline in market sentiment and manufacturing PMIs [3][9]. - The report notes that the US tariffs are expected to have a deflationary effect on China, with CPI and PPI inflation forecasts of 0% and -1.6% for 2025, respectively [32]. Policy Response - The April Politburo meeting indicated a lack of significant new stimulus measures, emphasizing employment stabilization over aggressive growth initiatives [9][18]. - Policymakers are increasingly conservative in utilizing fiscal space, focusing on targeted measures such as consumer loans and administrative adjustments rather than broad fiscal transfers [18][22]. Trade Relations - The report discusses the complexities of US-China tariff negotiations, highlighting significant differences in negotiation styles and a lack of trust, making a near-term deal difficult [13][16]. - It also notes that while the Chinese government aims to strengthen trade ties with other economies, achieving this will be challenging due to existing trade imbalances and competitive pressures [33][38]. Domestic Economic Shifts - Rising trade tensions are likely to push China towards a more consumption-driven economy, with a focus on domestic demand rather than external markets [38]. - The report suggests that reforms aimed at boosting local consumption and enhancing the social safety net may gain political support in light of ongoing economic challenges [38].