Tesla(US:TSLA) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-06 02:43Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Tesla Inc. with a 12-month price target of $235, indicating a potential downside of 16.1% from the current price of $280.26 [21][26]. Core Insights - Tesla's ability to leverage its Full Self Driving (FSD) software in China is crucial for its future stock performance, given the size of the Chinese vehicle market and the competitive landscape for ADAS software [1][15]. - China has emerged as Tesla's largest market for new vehicle sales, attributed to higher BEV penetration rates compared to other regions [2][3]. - Tesla's TTM share in the US BEV market has decreased to approximately 45%, while its share in Europe has fallen to the low double-digit range; however, its share in China has remained stable in the high single-digit range [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is characterized by a BEV adoption rate of over 30%, significantly higher than that of the US and select European countries [11]. - Consumer sentiment towards Tesla in China has been more favorable compared to North America and Europe, as indicated by stronger consumer scores and net buzz metrics [9][14]. Competitive Landscape - Tesla's FSD offering faces competition from local brands in China that provide advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) as standard features, which could impact Tesla's long-term economics related to autonomy [16][20]. - The report highlights various local competitors offering similar or superior features at competitive prices, which may challenge Tesla's market position [20]. Financial Projections - The report projects Tesla's revenue to reach approximately $97.69 billion in 2024, with an EBITDA of $16.01 billion [26]. - The analysis includes a downside scenario where Tesla's stock could drop to around $150, assuming slower volume growth and margin improvement, while an upside scenario could see the stock rise to approximately $345 [21].