森马服饰：点评报告：费用投放致利润波动，蓄力中期成长-20250506

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 210 million yuan, down 38.2% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weaker performance in the franchise business compared to direct sales, influenced by an earlier Chinese New Year affecting wholesale business [2] - Increased expenditure on marketing and store openings has temporarily pressured profit margins, but this strategy is expected to support long-term growth [3] - The company anticipates revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 14.89 billion yuan, 15.75 billion yuan, and 16.55 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 1.8%, 5.8%, and 5.1% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 47.0%, with an increase in sales expense ratio to 28.6% due to heightened advertising during the Spring Festival [3] - The company experienced a significant increase in inventory, up 29.4% year-on-year to 3.35 billion yuan, leading to a decrease in operating cash flow by 81.7% to 150 million yuan [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.10 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.31 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -3.0%, +9.0%, and +8.6% [4] - The company maintains a strong brand presence with its main brands, Balabala and Semir, and is expected to benefit from ongoing store expansions and organizational changes [4]