HEGC(SZ:000883) HTSC·2025-05-06 03:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.11 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.03 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.814 billion RMB, up 3.75% year-on-year. However, the net profit fell short of expectations due to higher-than-anticipated asset impairment losses [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 19.65% year-on-year, primarily due to lower hydropower generation, which was down 45.77% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company expects improved profitability in thermal power generation in 2025 due to declining coal prices, despite challenges in hydropower generation [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total power generation of 44.04 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 23.21%. The breakdown includes hydropower down 0.36%, thermal power up 33.03%, wind power up 10.99%, and solar power up 53.97% [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 increased by 3.75%, driven by higher generation from the Peru Chagüa power station and reduced purchasing costs under long-term power purchase agreements [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - The company’s total power generation in Q1 2025 was 9.974 billion kWh, a decrease of 7.93% year-on-year, with hydropower generation significantly impacted by lower water inflow [3][4]. - The report indicates that the company’s hydropower generation is expected to face challenges in the near term, but thermal power profitability is projected to improve [3]. Adjustments and Forecasts - Due to higher-than-expected asset impairment losses, the report revised the 2025-2026 asset impairment loss estimates upward by 631.52% and 632.24% to 360 million RMB and 385 million RMB, respectively [4][13]. - The report also adjusted the 2025-2026 net profit estimates downward by 33.03% and 33.18% to 1.937 billion RMB and 2.049 billion RMB, respectively [4][14]. Valuation Metrics - The target market capitalization is set at 39.708 billion RMB, with a target price of 6.11 RMB per share, based on a comparative analysis with similar companies [4][19]. - The report provides a valuation comparison with peers, indicating that the company’s future growth in renewable energy capacity lags behind comparable firms [4][16].