Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) China Post Securities·2025-05-06 04:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in cost control leading to a notable increase in net profit [5][7]. - The company is focusing on a single product strategy for cream and plans to introduce customized new products to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The company is facing some cost pressures due to rising raw material prices but is managing to maintain stable profit margins through effective cost control measures [9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 43.12 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 73 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 49 billion CNY [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.69 billion shares, with 1.14 billion shares in circulation [4]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 41.2%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 27.04 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.835 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million CNY, up 266.94% [5][12]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.046 billion CNY, a 14.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 88 million CNY, reflecting a 15.11% growth [5][12]. - The company expects to continue revenue growth in 2025, with projected operating revenues of 4.466 billion CNY and net profits of 357 million CNY, representing year-on-year increases of 16.45% and 33.24%, respectively [10][12]. Product and Channel Performance - In 2024, the cream product line drove double-digit growth in distribution channels, while the supermarket channel experienced a decline due to product cycle adjustments [6]. - In Q1 2025, the supermarket channel showed a recovery with over 40% year-on-year revenue growth, primarily due to the launch of new products for key customers [6][8]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in the frozen baking segment with new ice cream cakes and other upgraded products [8]. Cost Management - The company has implemented strict control over its headquarters personnel and sales incentive mechanisms, leading to significant optimization of expense ratios [7]. - Despite facing cost pressures from rising raw material prices, the company has managed to maintain stable profit margins through effective cost management strategies [9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to reflect higher expected revenues and profits, with projected revenues of 4.466 billion CNY and 5.049 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 2.11 CNY and 2.44 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20.90 and 18.03 [10][12].