Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) China Post Securities·2025-05-06 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenues of 3.723 billion yuan, with a net profit of 239 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.13% but a decline in net profit by 22.46% [5][6]. - The impact of the misalignment of the New Year festival affected quarterly profit performance, with a gross margin of 26.74% and a net profit margin of 6.42%, both showing slight declines year-on-year [6][8]. - The company plans to adjust its product category structure in 2025, increasing the proportion of snack foods and reducing reliance on nuts, while launching new products like soft drinks and instant foods [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 13.847 billion, 17.763 billion, and 20.576 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.36%, 28.28%, and 15.84% [8][10]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 485 million, 675 million, and 823 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 39.18%, and 21.84% [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.21, 1.68, and 2.05 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 16, and 13 times [8][10].