山西汾酒（600809）：收入利润符合预期，25年有望稳健增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.29% [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing channel management capabilities and accelerating market response through organizational restructuring, which is expected to improve performance in 2024 and beyond [9] - The company anticipates a steady growth trajectory with revenue projections of 39.68 billion yuan in 2025, 43.78 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.48 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 13.51 billion yuan, 14.94 billion yuan, and 17.45 billion yuan respectively [11][12] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 204.10 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 249 billion yuan [2] - The company has a total share capital of 1.22 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.2% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.34 [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 4.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 893 million yuan, down 11.32% [4] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 77.36%, while the net profit margin was 19.19% [4] - The company achieved a sales cash collection of 6.45 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [4] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor to reach 26.53 billion yuan, growing by 14.35%, while other liquor categories are projected to generate 9.34 billion yuan, up 9.40% [5] - Online e-commerce sales are anticipated to reach 2.11 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 26.22% [5] - Revenue from domestic sales is expected to be 13.50 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province is projected at 22.37 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [5]