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伯特利(603596):2025年一季报点评:毛利率或为阶段低点,看好智能底盘+全球化长期趋势

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's gross margin may be at a temporary low point, but it remains optimistic about the long-term trends in smart chassis and globalization [1] - The company reported a revenue of 2.64 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 41.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 270 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37.3% [1] - Key customer demand has surged, with production from major clients like Chery and Geely increasing by 29% and 43% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The report notes that the company has successfully expanded its order acquisition, with 416 new projects added in 2024, including various product lines [1] - The expansion of the company's production capacity in Mexico is progressing smoothly, with expectations for significant output increases by 2025 [1] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate revenue growth of 30%, 20%, and 19% respectively, with net profit growth of 28%, 22%, and 21% [1] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 12.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.01% [1] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 1.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.99% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.59 [1] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.24% by 2026 [8]