智能驾驶行业研究 证券研究报告 发布时间：2025年10月22日 世界模型与VLA技术路线并行发展 ——智能驾驶深度报告 分析师：刘乐 执业证书编号：S0020524070001 邮箱：liule@gyzq.com.cn 分析师：陈烨尧 执业证书编号：S0020524080001 邮箱：chenyeyao@gyzq.com.cn 目录 1. "平权+端到端"，智能驾驶加速进化 1.1 智能驾驶行业发展回顾 1.2 智驾沿着"端到端"、"智驾平权"加速 2.端到端智能驾驶复盘 2.1 端到端智能驾驶演进历程 2.2 端到端智能驾驶第一阶段 2.3 端到端智能驾驶第二阶段 2.4 端到端智能驾驶第三及第四阶段 2.5 端到端智能驾驶已分化出两种核心路径 3. VLA技术路线 4. 世界模型技术路线 5. 投资建议 6.风险提示 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 3.1 VLA技术路线演进历程 3.2 VLA技术路线核心特征与当下痛点 3.3 VLA技术路线发展趋势研判 4.1 世界模型技术路线演进历程 4.2 世界模型技术路线核心特征与当下痛点 4.3 世界模型技术路线发展趋势研判 "平权+端到端"，智能驾 ...

Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with passenger car sales showing a slight year-on-year increase while the overall market sentiment remains weak [3][4][5]. Passenger Cars - In the week of September 22-28, 2025, passenger car sales reached 653,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 26.6% [2]. - For Q3 2025, wholesale passenger car sales are projected to be 7.686 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.7% and a month-on-month growth of 8.1% [5][58]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in Q3 2025 is expected to be 52.4%, with NEV wholesale sales reaching 4.024 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [5][19]. - The export of passenger cars in Q3 2025 is anticipated to be 1.592 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [19][62]. Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the A-share automotive sector declining by 6.1% during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [3]. - The performance of various sub-sectors varied, with commercial passenger vehicles increasing by 3.7%, while other segments like passenger cars and automotive parts saw declines ranging from 2.9% to 8.0% [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi, among others, focusing on those with strong performance in the NEV sector [4][8][58]. - In the parts sector, companies involved in intelligent driving and smart cockpit technologies are recommended, such as Berteli and Jifeng [8]. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is experiencing significant growth, with Q3 2025 wholesale sales reaching 282,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.1% [40][62]. - New energy heavy trucks are particularly strong, with sales of 58,000 units in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 181.5% [45][62]. Motorcycles - The market for large-displacement motorcycles (over 250cc) is projected to see wholesale sales of 258,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% [56][63]. - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 50.5% [52][63]. Component Sector - The component sector is benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs and shipping fees, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for companies [34][35][62]. - Companies in the supply chain for leading manufacturers like Xiaomi, Xpeng, and NIO are expected to perform well in terms of revenue [38][62].

证券代码：603596 证券简称：伯特利 公告编号：2025-077 关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现金管理的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 现金管理产品基本情况 1、券商理财 | 产品名称 | | | | "银河金鼎"收益凭证 | | 5290 | | | 期-保守看涨(中 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 证 A500) | | | | | | | | | 受托方名称 | 中国银河证券股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | 购买金额 | | 万元 5,000 | | | | | | | | | 产品期限 | 17 | 2025 年 | 10 | 月 | 日-2026 | 年 | 4 月 | 15 | 日 | | 特别风险提示（如有请勾选） | | 其他：不适用 | | | | | | | | 2、券商理财 | 产品名称 | "银河金鼎"收益凭证 | | | | 5291 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to utilize up to 1.3 billion yuan of idle raised funds for cash management to improve capital efficiency and increase returns [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The investment will be made in two financial products from Galaxy Securities, with an investment of 50 million yuan each [1] - The investment terms are from October 17, 2025, to April 15, 2026, for one product, and from October 16, 2026, for the other [1] - Both investments are structured to provide principal protection with floating returns [1] Group 2: Financial Status - As of the announcement date, the company has utilized 1.26 billion yuan of the available quota in the past 12 months, leaving an unused quota of 40 million yuan [1] - The investment decision has been approved by the board of directors and the supervisory board, with no objections from the sponsoring institution [1] Group 3: Risk Considerations - While the investment risks are controllable, returns may fluctuate due to macroeconomic influences [1]

Core Insights - Bertli's stock price increased by 2.03% on October 16, reaching 49.72 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 30.156 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 12.38%, but a recent decline of 4.57% over the last five trading days [1][2] - Bertli's main business involves the research, development, production, and sales of automotive brake system-related products, with a revenue composition of 45.59% from intelligent electronic control products and 44.77% from mechanical brake products [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bertli reported a revenue of 5.164 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.04%, and a net profit of 522 million CNY, up 14.19% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 664 million CNY, with 499 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 10, 2025, the number of Bertli's shareholders increased to 40,000, a rise of 65.24%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 39.46% to 15,162 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, holding 38.4732 million shares, a decrease of 2.7464 million shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1 - The automotive parts sector saw significant gains, with Sanhua Intelligent Control reaching the daily limit, Top Group and Shuanghuan Transmission rising over 4%, and Bertly increasing by more than 3% [1] - The ETF tracking the CSI Automotive Parts Theme Index rose over 3% due to the performance of heavy-weight stocks [1] - The CSI Automotive Parts Theme Index includes 100 listed companies involved in automotive systems, interiors, electronics, and tires, reflecting the overall performance of automotive parts companies [2] Group 2 - Brokerages noted that humanoid robots and smart vehicles share many commonalities in hardware and software, prompting car manufacturers to enter the robotics sector, which is leading automotive parts companies to increase their investments in robotics [2] - Key components of humanoid robots, such as screws, motors, reducers, sensors, and skeletons, are widely used in vehicles, positioning humanoid robots as a "second curve" for automotive parts [2] - The short-term potential of this "second curve" may catalyze an increase in industry chain valuations, with humanoid robots expected to unlock new growth opportunities for the automotive parts sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bertli's stock price has shown fluctuations with a year-to-date increase of 7.82%, but a recent decline of 11.49% over the past five trading days, indicating volatility in market performance [1] Company Overview - Bertli, officially known as Wuhu Bertli Automotive Safety Systems Co., Ltd., is located in Wuhu, Anhui, China, and was established on June 25, 2004, with its listing date on April 27, 2018 [1] - The company specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of automotive brake system-related products [1] - Revenue composition includes: intelligent electronic control products (45.59%), mechanical brake products (44.77%), mechanical steering products (5.63%), and other products (2.92% for supplementary and 1.09% for others) [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bertli achieved operating revenue of 5.164 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 522 million yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Bertli has distributed a total of 664 million yuan in dividends, with 499 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 40,000, a rise of 65.24%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 39.46% to 15,162 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder with 38.4732 million shares, a decrease of 2.7464 million shares from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Views - The automotive industry is transitioning into a technological era, with electric, intelligent, and connected vehicles driving growth. The report emphasizes the importance of energy flow applications in electrification and data flow applications in intelligence [14][15]. - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends [4][25]. - The forecast for the domestic automotive market indicates a compound annual growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years, with significant growth in new energy vehicles [15][22]. Monthly Sales and Market Performance - In September, the narrow passenger car market is expected to see a retail sales volume of approximately 2.15 million units, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [1][10]. - The automotive sector's performance in September showed a 6.38% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [2][10]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC Motors are rated as "Outperform" with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong future performance [5][10]. - Leap Motor is projected to have an EPS of 0.62 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 107, while Geely is expected to have an EPS of 1.57 with a PE of 13 [5]. Market Trends and Innovations - The report notes significant advancements in autonomous driving technologies, with companies like Tesla and local players making strides in robotaxi operations and intelligent vehicle features [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new product cycles, particularly for companies like Huawei and Xiaomi entering the automotive space, which are expected to drive growth in the industry [3][4]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands that are rising in the electric and intelligent vehicle segments, as well as companies involved in the supply of incremental components [4][25]. - Specific recommendations include companies like Top Group, Horizon Robotics, and various domestic auto parts suppliers that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry [4][24].

责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，招商基金旗下1只基金重仓伯特利。招商中小盘混合（217013）二季度增持5400股，持有股 数10.93万股，占基金净值比例为3.34%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约17.93万元。 连续3天下跌期间浮亏损失58.15万元。 招商中小盘混合（217013）成立日期2009年12月25日，最新规模1.72亿。今年以来收益25.66%，同类排 名3853/8234；近一年收益24.39%，同类排名3617/8083；成立以来收益258%。 招商中小盘混合（217013）基金经理为韩冰。 截至发稿，韩冰累计任职时间10年165天，现任基金资产总规模8.38亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 103.87%， 任职期间最差基金回报-27.6%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 10月13日，伯特利跌3.27%，截至发稿，报48.56元/股，成交6.41亿元，换手率2.18%，总市值294.52亿 元。伯特利股价已经连续3天下跌， ...

Core Viewpoint - Bertli's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 15.39% but a recent decline of 3.15% over the past five trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bertli achieved a revenue of 5.164 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 522 million yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 664 million yuan, with 499 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 40,000, a rise of 65.24%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 39.46% to 15,162 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 38.4732 million shares, a decrease of 2.7464 million shares from the previous period [3]