YILI(SH:600887) China Post Securities·2025-05-06 07:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [4][9] - The company expects to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 12.6 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery [9] - The company has improved its gross margin to 37.82% in Q1 2025, driven by a decrease in raw milk prices and growth in high-margin products [7] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 29.76 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 189.4 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 6.366 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.9% [3] - The largest shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 26.74 billion yuan, a decline of 7.07% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.42 billion yuan [5] - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products in 2024 was 75.003 billion yuan, 29.675 billion yuan, and 0.722 billion yuan respectively, showing varying degrees of decline [6] - The company’s dividend payout ratio increased to 91.4% in 2024, reflecting a strategy to maintain shareholder returns despite profit declines [8] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1,220.44 billion yuan, 1,273.85 billion yuan, and 1,332.65 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 112.44 billion yuan, 126.74 billion yuan, and 140.79 billion yuan [9][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.77 yuan, 1.99 yuan, and 2.21 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17, 15, and 13 [9][11]