Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy (600419) EBSCN·2025-05-06 07:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419.SH) [6] Core Views - Tianrun Dairy's 2024 annual revenue reached 2.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 69.26% to 43.66 million yuan [1] - The company faced challenges in the first quarter of 2025, with a revenue of 625 million yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year, and a net loss of 73.30 million yuan [1][4] - The report highlights the impact of cattle impairment on short-term profits, with a projected recovery in profitability expected as the company normalizes its cattle culling rate [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Tianrun Dairy's revenue was 2.804 billion yuan, with a net profit of 43.66 million yuan, and a significant decline in net profit margin to 1.56% [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 625 million yuan, with a net loss of 73.30 million yuan, indicating a challenging market environment [1][4] Product Categories - The revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 showed that the revenue from ambient dairy products, low-temperature dairy products, and livestock products were 347 million yuan, 239 million yuan, and 17 million yuan respectively, with low-temperature products being relatively stable [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for 2024 was 16.76%, with a decline in Q1 2025 to 14.63% due to increased promotional activities [3] - Selling expense ratio increased to 6.87% in Q1 2025, attributed to promotional discounts [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 108 million yuan and 195 million yuan, respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of 247 million yuan [4] - The report indicates that the current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 29x for 2025, 16x for 2026, and 13x for 2027, reflecting the company's differentiated product advantages and growth potential in external markets [4]