通威股份（600438）：持续推动降本和技术研发以应对行业低谷

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is facing challenges due to a significant decline in revenue and profitability, primarily driven by falling product prices in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector [4][7] - Despite the current downturn, the company maintains strong competitive advantages in scale, technology, and cost, positioning it well for recovery as market conditions improve [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 919.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.87% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -70.39 billion yuan, down 151.86% [4] - For the first quarter of 2025, revenue was 159.33 billion yuan, a decline of 18.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of -25.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 229.56% [4] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 94.64 billion yuan and 103.55 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of -5.07 billion yuan and -0.90 billion yuan [6][9] Industry Context - The photovoltaic manufacturing business is experiencing a downturn due to industry-wide price declines and increased competition, impacting revenue and gross margins significantly [7] - The company has expanded its production capacity in high-purity polysilicon and continues to innovate in battery technology, which may enhance its competitive position in the future [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with forecasts indicating a return to positive net profit of 1.32 billion yuan by 2027 [8] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of -14.5 for 2025 and 55.7 for 2027, reflecting the anticipated recovery in earnings [8]