森麒麟（002984）：产品价格相对稳定，Q1销量受内销及非美订单影响，叠合金市场持续扩容

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 85.11 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 21.86 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 59.7% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 2.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.61 billion yuan, down 28.3% year-on-year, indicating performance slightly below expectations [6] - The company is benefiting from stable overseas demand and improved profitability due to a decrease in anti-dumping tax rates in Thailand, which has led to increased product prices and tax refund benefits [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are as follows: 2024: 85.11 billion yuan, 2025E: 100.66 billion yuan, 2026E: 112.39 billion yuan, 2027E: 125.65 billion yuan [2] - Net profit forecasts are: 2024: 21.86 billion yuan, 2025E: 17.14 billion yuan, 2026E: 21.01 billion yuan, 2027E: 25.22 billion yuan [2] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 32.8% in 2024 to 27.0% in 2027, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 16.2% in 2024 to 13.2% in 2027 [2] Sales and Production Insights - The company’s tire production is projected to reach approximately 32.23 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [6] - The sales volume for tires is expected to be around 31.41 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [6] - The company is expanding its high-end product offerings and has begun supplying winter tires to Volkswagen, enhancing its brand recognition in the global market [6] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall cost pressure from raw materials has increased, particularly due to rising rubber prices and shipping costs [6] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 22.75% in Q1 2025, down 2.46 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 8.57 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The net profit margin is projected to decrease to 17.57% in Q1 2025, reflecting a decline of 3.63 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 6.25 percentage points year-on-year [6]