上海港湾（605598）：2024年业绩有所波动，看好今年海外放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.297 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.51%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 46.86% to 93 million yuan. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to decline by 49.22% to 85 million yuan [7][11]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 372 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 29.25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18.59% to 36 million yuan, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items rose by 34.24% to 39 million yuan [7][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in profit due to a decrease in gross margin from domestic operations. The overall gross margin for 2024 was 29.59%, down 4.67 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 16.46%, down 20.34 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin from domestic operations decreased by 26.73 percentage points, while the gross margin from overseas operations increased by 1.40 percentage points [11][13]. - The company faced increased impairment losses in 2024, exceeding 40 million yuan, which is an increase of approximately 15 million yuan year-on-year. In contrast, the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery in profitability, with a gross margin of 25.88%, down 11.45 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease in expense ratio to 16.22%, down 5.05 percentage points year-on-year [11][13]. - The company had a net cash outflow from operating activities of 8.3 million yuan in 2024, which turned positive in the first quarter of 2025 with a net inflow of 4.5 million yuan, primarily due to a significant increase in collections compared to the previous year [11][13]. - As of the end of 2024, the company had a substantial order backlog of 1.407 billion yuan, with new orders signed amounting to 2.053 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year. The company is actively expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, particularly in emerging markets like the Philippines and Kenya [11][13].