YILI(SH:600887) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-06 09:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.011 billion yuan, down 40.04% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 26.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 2.416 billion yuan, a significant decline of 330.4% year-on-year, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items also showing a loss of 2.498 billion yuan, down 258.82% year-on-year [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.874 billion yuan, down 17.71% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.629 billion yuan, up 24.19% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The revenue breakdown shows that liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 75.003 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, it decreased by 13.08%, while in Q1 2025, the decline narrowed to 3.06% [10]. - The revenue from milk powder and dairy products for 2024 was 29.675 billion yuan, an increase of 7.53% year-on-year, with Q4 and Q1 showing growth rates of 8.72% and 18.65% respectively [10]. - The company experienced a significant loss in Q4 2024 primarily due to goodwill impairment of 3.037 billion yuan related to Aoyou, which impacted the net profit margin [10]. Cost and Efficiency - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 34.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.96 percentage points to 7.3% [10]. - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin improved to 37.82%, with a net profit margin of 14.76%, indicating a recovery in profitability due to cost management and operational efficiency [10]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the supply-side turning point is approaching, with expectations of improved competition and a recovery in liquid milk trends. The company is likely to benefit from stable raw milk prices and potential demand recovery due to upcoming stimulus policies [10]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 7.726 billion yuan for 2024, maintaining a high payout ratio of 91.40%, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [10]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.83 yuan and 2.02 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16 and 15 times [10].