PDH(SH:600048) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-06 10:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 10.6 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23 times for 2025 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 311.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 5 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue was about 54.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.09%, while the net profit was around 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.27% year-on-year [2][5][10]. - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue due to reduced project completion and sales scale, with a projected revenue drop of approximately 12% in 2025 [2][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 13.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from 2023, but is expected to improve in 2025 as the low-quality land inventory is gradually settled [2][10]. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 311.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 273.1 billion yuan in 2025, and further to 243.1 billion yuan in 2026, with a slight recovery to 230.4 billion yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover slightly in 2025 to 5.39 billion yuan, with a projected EPS of 0.45 yuan [5][10]. - The company has successfully reduced its interest-bearing debt by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan by the end of 2024, achieving a continuous decline in the debt scale for two consecutive years [2][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has maintained a strong financing advantage, with the cost of interest-bearing debt decreasing to a historical low of 3.1% [2][10]. - In Q1 2025, the company signed contracts worth 63 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, while the land investment intensity rose to 29% [2][10]. - The company plans to issue convertible bonds totaling no more than 8.5 billion yuan to fund 15 real estate development projects in major cities [2][10].