Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-06 11:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 9.61% year-on-year in 2024, reaching a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan, and a significant increase in net profit by 266.94% to 268 million yuan [7][3] - The UHT cream products continue to show high growth momentum, with a revenue contribution of over 500 million yuan from new UHT cream products in 2024 [9][10] - The company plans to enhance the sales proportion of core baking products in supermarkets and restaurants, and develop high-end and cost-effective product lines leveraging the expansion of UHT cream production capacity [13][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% [7][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.13%, and a net profit of 88 million yuan, an increase of 15.11% [7][4] - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 31.5% and 30.0%, respectively, with slight pressure due to rising raw material costs [10][2] - The company’s operating expenses have decreased, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios improving in 2024 and Q1 2025 [10][2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 4.367 billion yuan, 4.821 billion yuan, and 5.174 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 10.4%, and 7.3% [3][14] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 318 million yuan, 366 million yuan, and 391 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.6%, 15.0%, and 7.0% [3][14] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.88 yuan, 2.16 yuan, and 2.31 yuan, respectively [3][14]