米奥会展（300795）：短期业绩承压，看好后续业绩拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to see a performance turning point in the future [1][5] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 751 million yuan and 155 million yuan, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 10.01% and 17.55% [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with figures of 17.27 million yuan and -36.79 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 77.32% and 864.17% [2][4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company reported its performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a decline in both revenue and net profit due to high base effects and cautious spending from exporters [2][3] Analysis and Judgment - The decline in 2024 performance is attributed to two main factors: the high base from 2023, which saw significant growth due to post-pandemic demand, and a cautious outlook from exporters affecting their exhibition spending [3] - The revenue drop in Q1 2025 is primarily due to the adjustment of the exhibition schedule, with no self-hosted exhibitions held in that quarter compared to two in the same period last year [4] Future Expectations - The expected VIP customer repurchase rate for 2025 is projected to reach 60%, significantly higher than the previous year's rate, indicating strong customer recognition of the company's exhibition effectiveness [5] - The company plans to host six self-organized exhibitions in Q2 2025, up from four in the same period last year, suggesting a potential performance recovery [5] AI and New Growth Points - The company is actively integrating AI into its exhibition services, launching "AI Exhibition 1.0" to enhance efficiency and customer engagement [6] - Participation in strategic financing for AI technology development indicates a commitment to leveraging AI for future growth in the exhibition industry [6] Investment Recommendations - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to 1.064 billion yuan, 1.391 billion yuan, and 1.575 billion yuan, with net profits of 273 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 429 million yuan, respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period are revised to 1.18 yuan, 1.60 yuan, and 1.86 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating based on the current market price [7]