恒立液压（601100）：24A、25Q1点评：挖机业务有望回暖，线性驱动项目进入批量生产阶段

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - In 2024, the company's main business revenue is expected to grow by 4.47% year-on-year, with the hydraulic pump and valve segment driving this growth at 9.63%, while the hydraulic cylinder segment sees a modest increase of 1.44% [2][6] - The domestic excavator industry is experiencing a significant increase in sales, with a projected recovery in the company's excavator-related business due to the upward cycle in the domestic excavator market and ongoing domestic substitution of excavator pumps and valves [2][6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve significantly in 2024, benefiting from ongoing internal management efficiency improvements and product structure optimization [2][6] - The linear drive project has entered mass production, which is anticipated to contribute to new revenue and profit growth [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 0.40% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, and a net profit of 618 million yuan, up 2.61% year-on-year [6] Business Segments - The hydraulic pump and valve segment is the main driver of revenue growth, while the hydraulic cylinder segment's growth is primarily supported by non-standard cylinders in sectors like marine engineering [12] - The company anticipates strong growth in its excavator business throughout the year, supported by the domestic excavator industry's upward cycle and the continued domestic substitution of excavator pumps and valves [12] Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 42.83%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 26.76%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The company expects to see a slowdown in the rate of increase in expense ratios as new production capacity begins to contribute to revenue [12] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.86 billion yuan and 3.35 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 35 and 30 [12]