YILI(SH:600887) China Post Securities·2025-05-06 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [4][9] - The company expects to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 12.6 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery [9] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 29.76 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 189.4 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 6.366 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.38 [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, with a net profit of 4.874 billion yuan, down 17.71% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 37.82%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in raw milk prices and growth in high-margin products [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products was 75.003 billion yuan, 29.675 billion yuan, 8.721 billion yuan, and 0.722 billion yuan respectively, with liquid milk experiencing a decline of 12.32% [6] - The company reported a decrease in the number of distributors to 17,273, down 2,224 year-on-year [6] Dividend Policy - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 91.4% in 2024, an increase of 18.15 percentage points year-on-year, with a total dividend amount of 7.726 billion yuan [8] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 5.41% in 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 33.02% [9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.77 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17 times [9]