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奥瑞金(002701):中粮包装并表,期待行业格局与两片罐盈利改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the acquisition of COFCO Packaging is expected to improve the industry landscape and profitability in the two-piece can segment [3][5] - The company reported a revenue of 13.67 billion yuan for 2024, a slight decrease of 1.23% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 791 million yuan, an increase of 2.06% year-on-year [2][7] Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company's core business in metal packaging products and services generated revenue of 12.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.70%, while filling services achieved revenue of 166 million yuan, up 9.95% [3] - The domestic revenue for 2024 was 12.49 billion yuan, down 1.21% year-on-year, and overseas revenue was 1.18 billion yuan, down 1.39% [3] Profitability Summary - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 16.31%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.68%, up 0.34 percentage points [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 13.60%, a decrease of 4.66 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 11.99%, an increase of 4.21 percentage points [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 22.83 billion, 24.27 billion, and 25.83 billion yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.54, 0.54, and 0.59 yuan [5][7] - The report maintains a PE ratio of 10 for 2025 and 9 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][7]