山西汾酒（600809）：库存良性发展稳健，25年关注新品及腰部产品发力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report highlights the healthy development of inventory and focuses on new products and mid-tier products for 2025. The company is expected to continue optimizing its product structure, with an emphasis on high-end liquor and expansion into markets outside its home province [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 360.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 122.43 billion yuan, up 17% [8] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 165.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 66.48 billion yuan, a 6% increase [8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 76%, with a net margin of 34%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased to 79% [1][3] Product and Market Strategy - The company reported that the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 14% to 265.32 billion yuan in 2024, while other liquor categories saw a 9% increase to 93.42 billion yuan [2] - The company is expanding its dealer network, adding 15 dealers in its home province and 598 dealers outside, indicating a strong focus on provincial expansion [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 10%, with net profit growth forecasted at 8%. The EPS for 2025 is projected to be 10.84 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 19 times [3][4]