XfmGroup(SH:603225) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-06 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 310 million yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year but down 13.7% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 260 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.3% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 6.5%, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 2.1%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The company recorded significant asset impairment losses of 100 million yuan in Q1 2025 due to inventory devaluation pressures from declining oil prices [8]. Industry Outlook - The supply-demand situation for polyester filament yarn is expected to improve, with the industry entering a phase of limited capacity expansion. The industry’s concentration has increased, with the top five companies now holding a 65% market share. It is anticipated that new annual capacity will be around 2 million tons in 2025, leading to tighter supply and improved market conditions [8]. - Despite trade tensions, China's dominance in polyester filament supply is expected to mitigate long-term impacts on the industry, as the direct export of polyester filament to the U.S. is minimal [8]. Future Projections - The company is projected to benefit from the rising market conditions for polyester filament yarn, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.46 billion yuan in 2025, 1.88 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.30 billion yuan in 2027 [8].