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上声电子(688533):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:业绩承压,25年关注产能爬坡及内部增效

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 34.9 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance has been under pressure in recent quarters, but the overall growth logic remains intact. The revenue for 2024 is reported at 2.78 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is 235 million CNY, up 48% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue is 640 million CNY, a 6% year-on-year increase, but net profit has decreased by 53% to 27 million CNY [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 782 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 7%. However, net profit decreased by 12% to 46 million CNY. The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 22.1%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - The company has seen a decline in profitability due to increased costs from new capacity ramp-up and depreciation, particularly from its Hefei and Czech factories, which reported significant losses [2][9]. - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025 and 2026 to be adjusted to 284 million CNY and 355 million CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 20.7% and 25% [2][9]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has captured over 15% of the global market share in automotive speakers, leading the domestic market. Future sales are expected to increase from 90 million units to over 100 million units [2][9]. - The company is positioned as a pioneer in domestic substitution for high-end acoustic systems, with a growing client base among leading new energy vehicle manufacturers [2][9]. - The business model is evolving from single component manufacturing to system component manufacturing and human services, which is expected to enhance barriers to entry and return on equity (ROE) [2][9].