King's Luck(SH:603369) EBSCN·2025-05-07 07:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.546 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.412 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a corresponding payout ratio of approximately 43.85% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a total revenue of 5.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, and a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ products at 7.49 billion yuan (+15.2%), Special A products at 3.35 billion yuan (+16.6%), A products at 420 million yuan (+2.0%), and B products at 140 million yuan (-11.1%) [2]. - The company experienced a 19.5% increase in white liquor sales volume, while the average price decreased by 4.3% [2]. - Revenue from various regions in 2024 showed growth, with notable increases in provinces such as Jiangsu and Anhui [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Special A+ products was 3.17 billion yuan (+6.6%), while Special A products saw a 17.4% increase to 1.65 billion yuan [3]. - The company’s market share in its home province continues to rise, with provincial revenue reaching 4.64 billion yuan (+8.5%) and non-provincial revenue at 440 million yuan (+19.0%) [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased discounts and a shift in product mix [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue showed a decline, with sales expense ratio at 18.5% and management expense ratio at 4.4% for 2024 [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company targets a revenue growth of 5%-12% for 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [5]. - The revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 3.66 billion yuan and 4.00 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 12% and 14% from previous estimates [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.93 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [5][6].