YTO(SH:600233) China Post Securities·2025-05-07 08:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][12]. Core Insights - The company has a solid industry position with an increasing market share, achieving a revenue of 69.03 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 19.7%, and a net profit of 4.01 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is focusing on the e-commerce express delivery market, with a significant increase in delivery volume, reaching 26.57 billion packages in 2024, a growth of 25.3%, which is 3.8 percentage points above the industry average [4]. - The company has implemented advanced technologies, including AI, to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, resulting in a decrease in core costs and improved profitability [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, but a net profit decline of 9.2% [3][6]. - The company’s operating revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 77.94 billion yuan, 86.48 billion yuan, and 94.44 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 12.9%, 11.0%, and 9.2% respectively [7][9]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.30 billion yuan, 4.64 billion yuan, and 5.05 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.1%, 8.0%, and 8.9% respectively [9][10]. Cost Management - The company has effectively controlled core costs, with a decrease in per-package transportation costs to 0.42 yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year, and center operation costs to 0.28 yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [5][6]. - The overall expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses remained stable, contributing to the positive performance of the express delivery business [5].