lu'an EED(SH:601699) Ping An Securities·2025-05-07 09:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in coal prices, which has reached a bottom range, and is awaiting a turning point in coal consumption during the peak season [1][7] - The company reported a significant decrease in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% year-on-year [3][5] - The company maintains a stable production and sales volume despite market pressures, with expectations for a recovery in coal prices as the summer consumption season approaches [7] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.89%, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% [3][5] - The company's coal production in 2024 was 57.57 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, while the sales volume was 52.25 million tons, down 5.0% year-on-year [6] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 645.64 yuan per ton, a decrease of 82.0 yuan per ton compared to the previous year [6] - The company has a total market capitalization of 32.8 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.27% [1] Future Projections - For 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 36.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.75 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year [5][10] - The company expects to maintain a stable cash flow and has potential for further capital injection from the group, supporting future coal mine acquisitions and capacity expansion [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.75 billion yuan, 3.25 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.9, 10.1, and 9.1 [7][10]