Workflow
科前生物(688526):行业竞争拖累24年表现,25Q1复苏明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 11.48% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 942 million yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 382 million yuan, down 3.43% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the company showed a significant recovery with a revenue increase of 19.65% year-on-year, amounting to 245 million yuan, and a net profit of 108 million yuan, up 24.08% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in 2024 was primarily due to price pressures from intense industry competition, leading to a 12.75% drop in revenue from the main business of veterinary biological products, despite a 1.19% increase in sales volume compared to 2023. The gross margin for the main business fell by 7.72 percentage points to 65.07% [1][2]. - The company has been optimizing its cost management, with total expense ratios decreasing by 1.68 percentage points to 21.25% in 2024, mainly driven by a reduction in sales expenses [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 450 million yuan, 549 million yuan, and 639 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97 yuan, 1.18 yuan, and 1.37 yuan. The PE ratios are projected to be 17, 14, and 12 times for the same years [3][4]. - The revenue for 2025 is expected to rebound to 1.11 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 17.75%, followed by further growth in subsequent years [4]. - The company has received five new veterinary drug registration certificates in 2024, including a significant vaccine for pigs, and is actively developing multiple vaccine products for pets and ruminants [2]. Industry Context - The recovery in the company's performance is linked to the improving profitability of downstream pig farming, which is expected to drive demand for animal health products [2]. - Continuous investment in research and development is supporting the company's innovation and technological upgrades, enhancing the safety, effectiveness, and efficiency of its vaccine production [2].