Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Mixue Group, assigning a target price of HK$565 based on a 39x P/E ratio for 2025, indicating an 11% upside potential from the current price of HK$510.50 [3][16][13] Core Insights - Mixue Group is the leading freshly-made beverage company in China, with a total of 46,479 stores globally as of the end of 2024, making it the largest in terms of store count [7][8] - The company holds a 20.2% market share in China's freshly-made tea market, which is twice that of the second-largest competitor, and is also the largest freshly-made tea brand in Southeast Asia [7][8] - The freshly-made beverage market in China reached RMB 517.5 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 22.2% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the demand for value-for-money products [9][22] - Mixue's core products are priced between RMB 2 and RMB 8, making them highly competitive and appealing to cost-conscious consumers [9][39] - The company has established the largest and most digitized supply chain in the industry, ensuring high-quality and cost-effective product offerings [10][66] - Mixue has successfully created a super brand IP, "Snow King," which enhances consumer engagement and marketing efficiency, with branding expenses accounting for only 0.9% of revenue in 9M24 [11][11] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow at CAGRs of 19% and 18% respectively from 2024 to 2027, primarily driven by the opening of new franchise stores [12][17] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The projected financial performance for Mixue Group is as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 20,302 in 2023, 24,829 in 2024, 29,973 in 2025E, 35,537 in 2026E, and 41,992 in 2027E, with growth rates of 50%, 22%, 21%, 19%, and 18% respectively [6] - Net Profit (in million RMB): 3,187 in 2023, 4,454 in 2024, 5,173 in 2025E, 6,183 in 2026E, and 7,369 in 2027E, with growth rates of 57%, 41%, 16%, 20%, and 19% respectively [6] - Earnings per Share (in RMB): 8.7 in 2023, 12.3 in 2024, 14.3 in 2025E, 17.1 in 2026E, and 20.4 in 2027E [6] Competitive Advantages - Mixue Group is the only company among the top five in the freshly-made beverage sector that focuses on the mass market, providing high-quality products at affordable prices [9][39] - The company has a simple product layout with high sales of evergreen products, including Freshly-Squeezed Lemonade, Fresh Ice Cream, and Bubble Tea, which together account for over 40% of revenue [63][63] - The extensive supply chain network allows Mixue to maintain quality and control costs effectively, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [66][69]
蜜雪集团（02097）：现制茶饮第一，平价锚定，供应链为基