Eastern Air Logistics (601156) Dongxing Securities·2025-05-07 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges from tax policy changes [3][4]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion yuan, up 8.01% [1]. - The company's air freight business saw a revenue decline of 0.90% to 9.035 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.58%, down 5.04 percentage points [1]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 12.476 billion yuan, a 36.72% increase, and a gross margin of 15.89%, up 2.37 percentage points [2]. - The ground services segment reported a slight decrease in gross margin to 36.16%, despite a 6.91% increase in revenue to 2.531 billion yuan [2]. - The company is expected to face short-term disruptions due to new tax policies affecting cross-border e-commerce, leading to a cautious adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.486 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 7.40% to 545 million yuan due to increased tax expenses [1][2]. - The air freight business's gross margin improved to 34.03%, benefiting from higher freight rates, while the passenger aircraft cargo business saw a significant profit drop [1][2]. - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 2.3 billion, 2.682 billion, and 2.938 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.69, and 1.85 yuan [3][9].