Jointown(SH:600998) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-07 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and is expected to continue delivering on its "Three New and Two Transformations" strategy [1] - The successful issuance of REITs marks the beginning of a new chapter in light asset operations, with significant funds raised to enhance the company's growth potential [2] - The CSO business has shown sustained high growth, expanding from retail to hospital channels, indicating strong momentum [3] - The new retail and new medical sectors are entering a new phase of expansion, enhancing the company's ability to reach end consumers [4] - The company's profitability is expected to improve due to the contribution from Pre-REITs and innovative strategies, despite some temporary increases in expenses [5] - The operating quality has seen a slight decline, but there are positive trends anticipated for improvement [6] Summary by Sections Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 151.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 15.33% [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 42.02 billion yuan, a 3.82% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 80.38% to 970 million yuan [1] Growth Potential - The REITs issuance has successfully launched, raising 1.158 billion yuan, which is expected to accelerate the company's intelligent warehousing upgrades and high-margin business expansion [2] - The CSO business generated sales of 19.27 billion yuan, with a 19.59% growth in pharmaceutical CSO sales after adjusting for high base effects [3] Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 7.80%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 7.33%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 1.65%, up approximately 0.21 percentage points, with Q1 2025 showing a significant increase to 2.31%, up 0.98 percentage points [5] Operating Quality - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 was 3.083 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.07% year-on-year, primarily due to increased procurement payments [6] - The company anticipates improvements in operating cash flow due to changes in customer and channel structures [6] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1632.94 billion yuan, 1764.63 billion yuan, and 1900.79 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 7.56%, 8.06%, and 7.72% [12] - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.84 billion yuan, 3.18 billion yuan, and 3.54 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.13%, 12.08%, and 11.21% [12]