YILI(600887) 光大证券·2025-05-07 10:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [6] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a net loss of 2.42 billion yuan in Q4 2024, compared to a profit of 1.05 billion yuan in the same period of 2023, indicating significant challenges in the last quarter of the year [1] - In Q1 2025, Yili's revenue increased by 1.35% year-on-year to 33.02 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.71% year-on-year to 4.87 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profitability Summary - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand and inventory destocking [2] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue growth of 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from the premium infant formula segment [2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a notable increase in Q1 2025 to 37.82% due to lower raw milk prices [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 10.81 billion yuan and 11.65 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 6.1% and 5.4% reduction from previous estimates [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.70 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]