Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) EBSCN·2025-05-07 10:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.94% year-on-year [1] - The company's cream business continues to show strong growth, with UHT cream sales exceeding 500 million yuan in 2024 [2] - The company has optimized its expense ratio significantly, with a sales expense ratio of 10.1% in Q1 2025, down from 12.1% in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.99%, with a net profit of 65 million yuan compared to a loss of 85 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.13%, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, up 15.11% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - In 2024, revenue from frozen baking, cream, fruit products, sauces, and other baking materials were 2.133 billion, 1.058 billion, 166 million, 225 million, and 226 million yuan respectively, with cream revenue growing by 61.75% [2] - The traditional pastry channel accounted for approximately 57% of revenue in 2024, growing by 15%, while the new retail channel saw a growth rate of about 20% [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.47%, while it decreased to 29.99% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.99%, increasing to 8.45% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 332 million, 386 million, and 442 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, translating to EPS of 1.96, 2.28, and 2.61 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22, 19, and 17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]