IRAY TECHNOLOGY(688301) 华西证券·2025-05-07 11:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The CT tube is a critical component of medical CT machines, accounting for approximately 20% of the total BOM cost. It has high technical barriers due to its complex requirements in development, design, and manufacturing [1][18]. - The domestic market for CT tubes is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2025, driven by high replacement demand and a shorter average replacement cycle compared to developed countries [2][47]. - The report highlights the urgent need for domestic replacement of imported CT tubes, as the current domestic replacement rate is below 10%. Government policies are increasingly supportive of domestic innovation in this area [4][50]. Summary by Sections 1. CT Tubes: The "Core" of Medical CT - CT tubes are essential for X-ray computed tomography systems, with their performance directly impacting image quality and diagnostic capabilities [15]. - The technology has evolved significantly, focusing on improving heat dissipation, lifespan, and image quality [25][40]. 2. Market Size: High-Value Consumables with Broad Future Potential - The average replacement cycle for CT tubes in China is about 18 months, significantly shorter than the 2-4 years typical in developed countries [2][45]. - The market is segmented into OEM for new installations and aftermarket for replacements, with substantial growth expected in both areas [48]. 3. Competitive Landscape: Dominance of Overseas Manufacturers - Major global players like GE, Siemens, and Philips dominate the market, with a significant portion of the replacement tube market still relying on original manufacturer products [3][50]. - The report notes that 85% of replacement tubes globally are still original manufacturer tubes, indicating a strong market for domestic alternatives [3][50]. 4. Domestic Replacement: Urgent Need for Acceleration - The report emphasizes the low domestic replacement rate of CT tubes and the government's focus on promoting local production to reduce reliance on imports [4][50]. - Recent government initiatives, including anti-dumping investigations, are expected to create opportunities for domestic manufacturers [4]. 5. Company Overview: Yirui Technology as a Leading Supplier - Yirui Technology is positioned as a leading supplier of X-ray core components and comprehensive solutions, with a focus on expanding its product line in CT tubes [5]. - The company plans to raise approximately 1.174 billion yuan to enhance its production capacity for X-ray vacuum components and solutions [9]. 6. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.405 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.3%. Net profits are expected to reach 702 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 51.0% [10][11]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including EPS estimates and PE ratios, supporting the "Buy" rating [10].