Eastern Air Logistics (601156) Dongxing Securities·2025-05-07 13:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges from tax policy changes [3][4]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion yuan, up 8.01% [1]. - The company's air freight business saw a revenue decline of 0.90% to 9.035 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.58%, down 5.04 percentage points [1]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 12.476 billion yuan, a 36.72% increase, and a gross margin of 15.89%, up 2.37 percentage points [2]. - The ground services segment reported a slight decrease in gross margin to 36.16%, despite a 6.91% increase in revenue to 2.531 billion yuan [2]. - The company is expected to face short-term disruptions due to new tax policies affecting cross-border e-commerce, leading to a cautious adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.486 billion yuan, a 5.02% year-on-year increase, but a decline in net profit by 7.40% to 545 million yuan due to increased tax expenses [1][2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.3 billion, 2.68 billion, and 2.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.69, and 1.85 yuan [3][8]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.7, 7.5, and 6.8 times, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [3][8]. Business Segments Overview - The air freight business's daily utilization rate for all-cargo aircraft reached 13.01 hours, with a load factor of 82.17%, reflecting operational efficiency [1]. - The decline in profitability in the passenger aircraft cargo segment is attributed to a significant drop in gross profit, which fell to -80 million yuan from 417 million yuan in the previous year [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to market changes by optimizing capacity and focusing on high-demand areas, particularly in cross-border e-commerce logistics [2][3].