BAIRUN CORPORATION(002568)2025-05-07 13:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown stabilization in its pre-mixed beverage revenue and is expected to see growth from its whiskey products in the upcoming quarters [3][5] - The financial performance for FY24 and Q1 FY25 indicates a decline in total revenue and net profit, but the market expectations were met [2][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its whiskey business, with significant developments in its supply chain and product offerings planned for 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, the company achieved total revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% [2] - In Q4 FY24, total revenue was 660 million yuan, a decline of 18.0%, while net profit was 140 million yuan, slightly up by 0.5% [2] - For Q1 FY25, total revenue was 740 million yuan, down 8.1%, and net profit was 180 million yuan, up 7.0% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Pre-mixed cocktails and food flavoring generated revenues of 2.68 billion yuan and 340 million yuan respectively in FY24, with year-on-year changes of -7.2% and +6.4% [3] - Offline, digital retail, and ready-to-drink channels reported revenues of 2.71 billion yuan, 270 million yuan, and 40 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.5%, -30.8%, and -43.6% [3] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for FY24 and Q1 FY25 was 69.7%, reflecting an increase of 3.0 and 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost optimization and a higher proportion of high-margin offline channels [4] - The net profit margin for FY24 and Q1 FY25 was 23.5% and 24.6%, showing a year-on-year change of -1.2 and +3.7 percentage points [4] Strategic Focus - The whiskey business is a key strategic focus, with the company planning to launch new products and enhance its brand positioning in 2025 [5][6] - The company aims to strengthen its product matrix for pre-mixed beverages while gradually rolling out whiskey products, anticipating that the consumer base from pre-mixed beverages will support whiskey sales [5][6] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25 and FY26 has been adjusted down to 3.46 billion yuan and 3.91 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates revised to 830 million yuan and 970 million yuan [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 and FY26 are projected to be 0.79 yuan and 0.93 yuan, respectively [7]