Zhonggu Logistics(603565)2025-05-07 13:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 550 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.7%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 440 million yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year. The recovery in domestic trade demand and the strong performance in external leasing contributed positively to the company's results [2][5][10]. - The domestic trade sector is in a recovery phase, with supply tightening and freight rates increasing. The PDCI index averaged 1232 points in Q1 2025, up 9.4% year-on-year. The external leasing market remains robust, driven by structural issues in the feeder fleet and increased demand from major shipping companies [10]. - The company is benefiting from rising freight rates in domestic trade and increased rental income from external leasing, leading to improved performance. The gross profit margin increased by 9.4 percentage points to 25.9% due to the rising rental income and cost management [10]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2025-2027, resulting in dividend yields of 5.2%, 5.5%, and 5.7% respectively. The actual dividend payout ratio for 2024 reached 90.39%, corresponding to a yield of 8.1% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.57 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year. Operating costs were 1.90 billion yuan, down 18.1% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 550 million yuan, up 40.7% year-on-year. The net profit after non-recurring items was 440 million yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year [2][5][10]. Market Dynamics - The domestic trade market is recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in container throughput at major ports in January-February 2025. The supply expansion phase has ended, and the growth rate of domestic shipping supply is expected to remain low in the coming years [10]. - The external leasing market is experiencing high demand, with significant increases in rental rates for feeder vessels. The rental rates for 2750TEU and 4250TEU feeder vessels increased by 114.1% and 143.3% year-on-year, respectively [10]. Future Outlook - The company projects net profits of 1.97 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.5, 11.0, and 10.5 times [10].