Eastern Air Logistics (601156) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-07 14:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - In 2024, the company's operating revenue is projected to be 24.06 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.69 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [5][10]. - For Q4 2024, the company anticipates operating revenue of 6.38 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 620 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [5][10]. - The company is actively exploring emerging markets such as the Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asia to mitigate the impact of frequent U.S. tariff adjustments and the planned cancellation of the small package tax exemption policy [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the revenue from air express, ground comprehensive services, and integrated logistics solutions saw a year-on-year change of -8.8%, +8.0%, and +5.6% respectively [10]. - The gross profit for Q4 2024 is expected to be 1.28 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, with specific gross profits from air express, ground services, and integrated logistics at 450 million, 180 million, and 650 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -34.7%, -33.2%, and +36.7% respectively [10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.288 yuan per share for 2024, with a total dividend payout of 1.07 billion yuan, corresponding to a payout ratio of 40% [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market value of the company is below its replacement cost, indicating a more attractive valuation [10]. - If the pessimistic scenario is assumed where current freight rates drop to 2019 levels, the estimated net profit for 2025 would be approximately 2.02 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 9.5X [10]. - The estimated net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.02 billion, 2.29 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.5, 8.4, and 7.3X [10].