东航物流（601156）：25Q1经营稳健，关注后续关税影响

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.4% to 550 million yuan [5][10] - The air freight market remained strong during the off-peak season, with air freight prices rising, contributing to stable revenue growth for the company [10] - The company is advised to closely monitor the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the cancellation of air freight small package policies on cross-border e-commerce air freight demand [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 5.49 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, with air freight, ground comprehensive services, and comprehensive service solutions generating revenues of 2.06 billion, 620 million, and 2.80 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.9%, 4.7%, and 6.7% [10] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 17.5%, with gross profit increasing by 15.9% to 960 million yuan [10] - Financial expenses decreased by 40 million yuan year-on-year, leading to a 12.7% reduction in total expenses [10] Market and Policy Impact - The U.S. announced the end of the "de minimis" policy, which will increase tariffs on each package to 200 USD, significantly affecting air freight demand from cross-border e-commerce [10] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.02 billion, 2.29 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.5, 8.4, and 7.3 [10]