SF Holding(SZ:002352) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-07 14:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a business volume growth of 19.7% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in growth to 25% in March [2][12]. - The company's revenue for the first quarter of 2025 reached 69.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, driven by deeper penetration into various industry logistics scenarios and active international market expansion [6][12]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, with a net profit margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 3.2% [2][6]. - Excluding tax incentives and subsidiary disposal gains, the company's non-recurring net profit grew by 19.1% year-on-year [2][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 was 69.85 billion yuan, a 6.9% increase year-on-year, with express and international supply chain revenues growing by 7.2% and 9.9% respectively [2][12]. - The gross profit margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 13.3%, demonstrating resilience amid global economic uncertainties [12]. - The company effectively managed its expenses, resulting in a 0.8% decrease in period expenses year-on-year, with a corresponding decline in expense ratio by 0.7 percentage points [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a new share repurchase plan for 2025, intending to buy back 500 million to 1 billion yuan of A-shares, aimed at future employee stock ownership or incentive plans [12]. - The cash dividend payout ratio is set to increase to 40% in 2024, with total dividends reaching 8.9 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [12]. Cost Management and Competitive Position - The company continues to implement lean management practices to reduce costs, with capital expenditures in Q1 2025 dropping to 1.91 billion yuan, while free cash flow shows an improving trend [12]. - The new share repurchase plan indicates confidence in future growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 estimated at 11.7 billion, 13.55 billion, and 15.49 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.6, 16.0, and 14.0 times [12].