Haohua Energy(SH:601101) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-07 14:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance due to falling coal prices and production volumes in Q1 2025, but it is expected to benefit from capacity expansion and high dividend payouts in the future [1][3] - The company reported a revenue of 9.14 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.04 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.34 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan respectively, indicating a growth of 29.1%, 11.3%, and 8.1% year-on-year [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company produced and sold 18.07 million and 18.10 million tons of coal, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and 6.1% [1] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 427 yuan per ton, down 4.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop to 390.5 yuan per ton in Q1 2025, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year [1] - The cost of coal production increased to 211.1 yuan per ton in 2024, up 12.8% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 costs at 227.7 yuan per ton, a 19.3% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 44.8%, with a projected gross profit margin of 50.1% for 2025 [4][7] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its coal production capacity from 19.3 million tons per year to 30 million tons during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to be 63.63%, an increase of 15.17 percentage points year-on-year, translating to a dividend yield of 6.4% based on the closing price as of April 30, 2025 [1]