IMDTECL(SZ:002128) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-07 14:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure year-on-year due to rising alumina prices, but growth potential is expected from group asset injections [1] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.56 billion yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year but up 65.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 5.79 billion yuan, 6.17 billion yuan, and 6.50 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 8.4%, 6.5%, and 5.4% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina in Inner Mongolia was 3,794 yuan/ton, up 13.4% year-on-year but down 28.9% quarter-on-quarter, which may pressure the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment [5] - The average market price of aluminum ingots in Q1 2025 was 20,433 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5] Business Growth Potential - The company has a coal production capacity of 48 million tons and is expected to see growth from the injection of assets from the group, including 15 million tons of coal capacity and a large electrolytic aluminum production line [6] - The company plans to increase its renewable energy capacity, with a target of 700,000 kilowatts to be put into operation in 2024, contributing to its growth potential [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total cash dividend of 1.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.67%, which is expected to continue increasing under state-owned enterprise market management requirements [6]