PJRC(SH:600395) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-08 01:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was pressured by a decline in coal volume and price, while the electricity business saw increases in both volume and price [1] - The company reported a revenue of 8.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan, down 85.8% year-on-year [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 590 million, 1.12 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -43.7%, +91.2%, and +45.8% [1] Summary by Sections Coal Business Performance - In 2024, the company's coal production and external sales were 9.41 million and 7.84 million tons respectively, down 16.5% and 32% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 808 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, while the cost was 627 yuan per ton, up 11.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the average selling price of coal dropped to 672 yuan per ton, a decrease of 24.9% year-on-year [2] Electricity Business Performance - The company's electricity generation in 2024 was 651,472 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4020%, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.367 yuan per kWh [2] - In Q1 2025, electricity generation reached 368,758 million kWh, up 555.5% year-on-year, with an average on-grid price of 0.3718 yuan per kWh, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year [2] Capacity Expansion and Projects - The company is progressing with coal production capacity expansion, with several projects expected to commence operations in the coming years [3] - The company has also been advancing its coal-electricity and renewable energy projects, with significant investments in renewable energy capacity [3] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 45%, an increase of 4.94% year-on-year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 6.6% [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at 9.32 billion yuan, with a net profit of 590 million yuan, reflecting a P/E ratio of 172.5 times [4] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 23.1% in 2025, while the net margin is projected at 0.6% [4] - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 43.85 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 73.7% [8]