高盛：全球利率交易员：恶化延迟

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on US yields, suggesting that any material cheapening could present a buying opportunity for long positions, particularly in the context of broader growth expectations [1][2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that recent activity data has alleviated fears of an imminent economic deterioration, leading to a reassessment of Fed rate cut timing, now expected in July, September, or October [2]. - There is a belief that the recent dynamic of tariff de-escalation could extend in the near term, which may influence inflation and Fed signals [2]. - The report highlights a preference for buying 3m10y payers on the 3m 5s10s30s payer fly as a low-cost hedge against rising yields [1][5]. Summary by Sections United States and Canada - The labor market's health leaves rates pricing vulnerable to inflation surprises or a more vigilant Fed signal [2]. - The report anticipates that belly and long-end inflation will remain appealing if the positive growth trend continues [2]. - The Bank of Canada is expected to prioritize growth risks, with potential for further cuts if economic conditions worsen [2][19]. Europe - European core rates are stable, with limited signals from recent data for the ECB, which is expected to continue its cutting trajectory [11]. - The report suggests that sovereign credits like Bonos and BTPs may outperform core rates due to favorable ECB policies and macroeconomic performance in Spain and Italy [12]. - The report forecasts 10y Bund yields at 2.80% by the end of 2025, reflecting a stable outlook despite current market conditions [12]. Japan - The Bank of Japan's dovish tone and downgraded growth forecasts suggest skepticism about future rate hikes, with expectations pushed back to January 2026 [25]. - The report notes that the market is pricing in lower terminal rates, reflecting uncertainty about the BOJ's future actions [26]. Australia and New Zealand - The upcoming Australian election may influence fiscal and monetary policy, with potential stronger fiscal support if the incumbent Labor party remains in power [27]. - The report indicates that global growth risks may limit divergence between AUD and NZD rates [27]. Forecasts - The report provides a forecast for G10 10-year yields, with expectations for USD at 3.95% in 2Q25 and 4.00% in 4Q25, reflecting a cautious outlook on global economic conditions [31].